OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

Recent developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict have prompted diverse reactions and speculations. Notably, Hamas has not issued any statements regarding the recent Israeli strike targeting Mohammed Deif, a senior leader of the organization. Online sources from Al-Quds and the Al-Qassam Brigades have also refrained from addressing Deif’s status, maintaining their typical narrative about the ongoing conflict.

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which began on August 6, 2024, marks a significant escalation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. WNM’s report delves into TikTok responses, where Russian civilians have expressed fear and concern over the Ukrainian military offensives. The analysis highlights sentiments, narratives, and behaviors observed across the platform, providing actionable intelligence for strategic communication, psychological operations, and broader decision-making related to information warfare and public perception management.

The world is well aware of the information campaigns in Russia that have been used to influence public opinions and discussions in a pro-government direction. Several investigations have proven that these campaigns originated from the media empire of the late Wagner Group chief, Evgeniy Prigozhin, and were colloquially known as the “Troll Factory.” However, what has happened since Prigozhin’s death? How has it affected the online campaigns, companies, and initiatives that are reputed to have influenced the American elections in 2016?

Ismail Haniyeh, the prominent leader of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran on July 31, 2024, via a bombing operation. The explosive device, which had been clandestinely installed in his guesthouse weeks before the incident, was remotely detonated when Haniyeh was inside, according to New York Times. This high-profile assassination has been linked to Israel, although Israeli authorities have neither confirmed nor denied their involvement. The breach in security at the guesthouse, protected by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, underscored a significant lapse in their operational security protocols. This incident quickly became a prominent topic on social media, sparking discussions about Iran’s inability to protect its allies.

The WNM team analyzed TikTok content and other online videos to research this facility, which U.S. intelligence identified as an Iranian drone manufacturer. Currently, WNM has found that the facility shown online was primarily a college building with infrastructure for students and administrative staff, while all drone manufacturing capabilities were at the drone-making company “Albatros.” However, there was another manufacturing complex next to the building whose origin and purpose remain undetermined. During the investigation, WNM discovered an unidentified drone featuring jet engine markers but lacking other distinguishable details for proper identification.

A similar mystery arose in late July 2024 when Alabuga College’s official Telegram account posted a video inviting prospective students to join its prestigious UAV operators program, “Aeronautics and UAV Programming.” The video showcased a new, unidentified drone among others.

Recent developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict have prompted diverse reactions and speculations. Notably, Hamas has not issued any statements regarding the recent Israeli strike targeting Mohammed Deif, a senior leader of the organization. Online sources from Al-Quds and the Al-Qassam Brigades have also refrained from addressing Deif’s status, maintaining their typical narrative about the ongoing conflict.